Guesstimation will get you 40-50 percent of the way if you are good!
Doing research on what sells and shooting likewise is one of the reasons for my success in stock. During all my time spent on research I am constantly shocked by my inability to forecast and predict selling behavior of new material that I have just submitted. I can predict 40-50 percent max. The rest is out of my control. What this tells me is that Guesstimation will only go so far and the rest must be based on research or I will lose a potential 50-60 percent of sales. This calls for research!
So how do you do this? How do you do research on what sells?
The best estimates are not single images and their success, but rather whole shoots and their success. I use Dreamstime to calculate how a shoot is doing. I separate all the images from a shoot in a lightbox and look at the combined sales. Seeing the success of a lightbox is another smart little feature that Dreamstime gives us. Here is how you do it: Find the amount of income that Dreamstime account for compared to your total income. For me Dreamstime provides 1/16 of my total income. Then you go to your “Statistics page” and find the “RPD” (return per download) and this helps you to estimate how much money you have earned in average from the sales each lightbox has. The below excel sheet is based on a RPD of 1.3 USD. Next step: Find the 
date of when you images in your lightbox became online for sale (online date). Then find out how many days they have been online for sale by knowing the date of today (count date). Use the below document to fill out the rest: If you already have Google Docs: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pIRWgrSdo_2RrjLNU9BoqcQ&hl=en If you don’t have Google Docs: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pIRWgrSdo_2RrjLNU9BoqcQ Fill in all the gray slots and you should get a result in “Months it takes to get money back”. (Only for people already with Google Docs.) If you have another distribution of sales for Dreamstime then I do, then you have to put in a ratio in the formula in L3. You will figure it out. 🙂
Why do this?
Last year, I had three shoots that never got the money back that I spent. This is valuable information to know and knowing it you are more careful in budgeting the different types of shoots. Another important thing, and probably the most important thing is forecasting. Start analyzing what shots you seem to be good at and start producing them more. There is a saying that goes, “Never change a winning team.” Well this is just what you have to keep in mind and start producing your “winning” shoots! Good luck in 2009!
Very informative post, thanks for sharing !
My reading time of 2:48 was 50% off your guesstimation of 1:52. I guess you didn’t take into account
r-e-a-l-l-y slow people : )
Thanks for the post Yuri. Great info as always. If your willing to share I am curious to know what type of system do you use for managing your stock uploads and files. Are you using a custom built solution or a commercial product to manage your uploads and stats. Thanks
Great infor and thanks for sharing.
I think you have a math error in column L – “=round(K3/(G3*12);1)”; should it be “=K3/(G3*1.2)” (BTW, you can use formating instead of the round function; it make spreadsheet maintenance easier). There is no way you are getting your money back in 3.3 months with only 124 DL/month; using my formula, it comes to 30.4 months.
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I think that the 3.3 months takes in account all the stock sites he submits to. Dreamstime is 1/16 of his income per month. Factoring in the revenue from the other sites, his return on the cost of production for the given shoot will be re-cooped in 3.3 months.
Good point X. However I still lost becuase 1.3 times 16 equals 20.8, which is alot higher than 12.
BTW, typo on my earlier post…should be 1.3 and not 1.2.
Thanks for the Dreamstime lightbox tip, its a neat feature EVERY site needs to have for contributers. I do see some potholes with this method though. It doesn’t account for the fact that not every shot from a shoot will be represented at each agency, nor does every shoot sell equally well at all the sites. In a way, it’s not quite guesstimation anymore, but it’s still an estimation none the less.
Interesting Post.
I also just saw one of your pictures on the “deutsche Bahn” homepage (bahn.de) : )
be entertained
fun
To be honest, three hours ago was the first time I heard your name Yuri. I’ve been learning from your videos and posts ever since. You take excellent shots, and the fact you are so willing to share tips, tricks and techniques makes you both a great photographer and teacher in my eyes. Thanks so much. Please, when you have a minute, check out my website and let me know when I can come and apprentice 🙂
Cheers,
-Comatosed
To Comatosed: GREAT Portfolio!!!
Hello. I found your site through Deonne. I’m going to try this 10K day. It’s ruilcudois that I keep putting off writing. My latest excuse (actually a good one) is that I have a toddler, but her grandparents are coming back into town and will have her for all of Wednesday afternoon. I will try and I will write.(Yep. I’m going to do it!)Manisha recently posted..